Updated on November 25, 2022 10:08:24 AM EST
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. The markets will close early as part of the holiday weekend. Stocks will trade until 1:00 PM ET and the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET. We should see very light or thin trading in bonds today as a result of many traders being home already for the extended holiday weekend. This means that we shouldn’t be overly excited about a positive move later today (lower rates) nor be concerned about this morning’s early weakness in bonds. The thin trading causes bond prices to move more than they normally would, so we shouldn’t give much credence to any change, regardless of which direction it may be. Once traders return in force Monday morning, any exaggerated change should be corrected at that time.
Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from this month’s FOMC meeting did yield a bit of information that the markets liked. While it didn’t come as a major surprise since Chairman Powell and other Fed members have made recent comments in support of the same, the markets still responded favorably to the minutes showing a growing consensus that the Fed needs to start slowing the pace of their rate hikes. It was one thing to have market analysts call for a slowing, but seeing that more voting FOMC members feel the same makes it more of a reality. Traders now predict the Fed will raise key short-term rates by a half-point at next month’s meeting after four consecutive three-quarter point moves. This led to an improvement in bonds and mortgage rates late Wednesday.
Next week has a busy calendar with many events scheduled that carry the potential to influence mortgage rates. Besides the key economic reports that we get with the new month, there are also a large number of other releases scheduled. In addition, there are Fed member speaking engagements, one of which is by Fed Chairman Powell. The week starts light with nothing set for Monday that we need to be concerned with and only a moderately important report Tuesday. But the middle and latter days are packed with events that should cause a great deal of volatility in the financial and mortgage markets. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
©Mortgage Commentary 2022